COMPUTATIONAL SOCIAL SCIENCE

Department of Computational Social Science Thesis Proposals/Defenses

Tuesday, August 2 - 2:00 p.m.
Research Hall, Room 91

A Multiagent Model of the Success and Failure of Development Aid Projects in the Post-2001 Counterinsurgency in Afghanistan

Seyed Mohammad Mussavi Rizi
CSS PhD Student
George Mason University

In this dissertation I examine the reasons for success and failure of development aid projects during internal armed conflict and instantiate the framework for the post-2001 Afghanistan. The dissertation unfolds in five chapters. Chapter one uses a disaggregated dataset to test hypotheses on why some development projects launched during the current Afghan insurgency have succeeded, and proposes a computational framework to study the causes of the success or failure of development projects in internal armed conflict. Chapter two introduces a population synthesis algorithm that parameterizes a livelihood model for rural Afghanistan. Chapter three develops the livelihood model
over which development projects will be implemented. Chapter four augments the livelihood model with dyadic interactions among the insurgents, counterinsurgents and the population implemented as a kinetic event sampler, development projects layer, and a population attitude formation and change model. Chapter five ties in the modules developed in chapters 2–4 to perform a computational analysis of development projects in the province of Uruzgan in Southern Afghanistan.